Prevention of Cardiovascular Events (eg, Death From Heart or Vascular Disease, Heart Attack, or Stroke) in Patients With Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartbraintherapytreatedstroke
  Phrases that lowered it: historycardiovascularbloodopendaily
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 343 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 884 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Platelet Reactivity in Acute Non-disabling Cerebrovascular Events NCT02506140 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• [SOCRATES -Acute Stroke Or Transient IsChaemic Attack TReated With Aspirin or Ticagrelor and Patient OutcomES] NCT01994720 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Ticagrelor in Patients With ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction Treated With Pharmacological Thrombolysis NCT02298088 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Clopidogrel With Aspirin in High-risk Patients With Acute Non-disabling Cerebrovascular Events II NCT04078737 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing Ticagrelor With Aspirin for Prevention of Vascular Events in Patients Undergoing CABG NCT01755520 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.