Clopidogrel With Aspirin in High-risk Patients With Acute Non-disabling Cerebrovascular Events II

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationacutesurgeryischemiccardiac
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmadrugrangedisorder40 years
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 71488 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 537396 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clopidogrel in High-risk Patients With Acute Non-disabling Cerebrovascular Events NCT00979589 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Platelet Reactivity in Acute Non-disabling Cerebrovascular Events NCT02506140 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• THALES - Acute STroke or Transient IscHaemic Attack Treated With TicAgreLor and ASA for PrEvention of Stroke and Death NCT03354429 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke (POINT) Trial NCT00991029 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Prevention of Cardiovascular Events (eg, Death From Heart or Vascular Disease, Heart Attack, or Stroke) in Patients With Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin NCT01225562 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.