Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics and Safety of MK-4448 in Participants With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation or Atrial Flutter

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lymphomacancerstrokesurgeryhas history
  Phrases that lowered it: participantvisitlonginvestigatorterm
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2 Study of the Safety, Tolerability and Pilot Efficacy of Oral Factor Xa Inhibitor Betrixaban Compared to Warfarin NCT00742859 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study on Edoxaban for the Resolution of Left Atrial Thrombosis in Patients With Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation NCT03489395 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of HSY244 in Participants With Atrial Fibrillation NCT04582409 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics of MK-2060 in Older Participants With End-Stage Renal Disease on Hemodialysis (MK-2060-004) NCT03873038 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Effect of Avacopan at Therapeutic and Supratherapeutic Doses on the QT/QTc Interval in Healthy Participants NCT05988034 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.