A Pilot Study on Edoxaban for the Resolution of Left Atrial Thrombosis in Patients With Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapylefteligiblepatientpatients
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsecgdisordersignificantoral
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Exploring the Efficacy of Once Daily Oral Rivaroxaban for Treatment of Thrombus in Left Atrial/Left Atrial Appendage in Subjects With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation or Atrial Flutter NCT01839357 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Resolution of Left Atrial-Appendage Thrombus - Effects of Dabigatran in Patients With AF NCT02256683 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• Phase 2 Study of the Safety, Tolerability and Pilot Efficacy of Oral Factor Xa Inhibitor Betrixaban Compared to Warfarin NCT00742859 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Edoxaban vs. Warfarin in Subjects Undergoing Cardioversion of Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) NCT02072434 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Early Administration of Edoxaban After Acute Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation NCT03433235 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.