Resolution of Left Atrial-Appendage Thrombus - Effects of Dabigatran in Patients With AF
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-05-31, after 2014-07-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: 110doses30heart90
Phrases that lowered it: trialcompareulnrecurrenttherapy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 17 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 8 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 34236 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7190 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 69.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dabigatran, dabigatran etexilate, phenprocoumon
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Pilot Study on Edoxaban for the Resolution of Left Atrial Thrombosis in Patients With Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation NCT03489395 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Exploring the Efficacy of Once Daily Oral Rivaroxaban for Treatment of Thrombus in Left Atrial/Left Atrial Appendage in Subjects With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation or Atrial Flutter NCT01839357 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Dual Therapy With Dabigatran vs. Triple Therapy With Warfarin in Patients With AF That Undergo a PCI With Stenting (REDUAL-PCI) NCT02164864 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Assessment of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Versus Rivaroxaban In Atrial Fibrillation Patients Treated With Left Atrial Appendage Closure NCT03273322 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Edoxaban vs. Warfarin in Subjects Undergoing Cardioversion of Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) NCT02072434 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.