Edoxaban vs. Warfarin in Subjects Undergoing Cardioversion of Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-02-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: protocol definedleftriskatrialhigh
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsreceivedto compareperiod
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Global Study to Assess the Safety and Effectiveness of Edoxaban (DU-176b) vs Standard Practice of Dosing With Warfarin in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation NCT00781391 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn How Well the Study Treatment Asundexian Works and How Safe it is Compared to Apixaban to Prevent Stroke or Systemic Embolism in People With Irregular and Often Rapid Heartbeat (Atrial Fibrillation), and at Risk for Stroke NCT05643573 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• A Pilot Study on Edoxaban for the Resolution of Left Atrial Thrombosis in Patients With Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation NCT03489395 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Edoxaban Treatment Versus Vitamin K Antagonist (VKA) in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation (AF) Undergoing Catheter Ablation NCT02942576 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Non-vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants in Patients With Atrial High Rate Episodes NCT02618577 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.