Non-vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants in Patients With Atrial High Rate Episodes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stroketherapyeligiblecoronaryhypertension
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialoralabuseconducted inrandomised
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 30.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 375 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Edoxaban vs. Warfarin in Subjects Undergoing Cardioversion of Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) NCT02072434 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn How Well the Study Treatment Asundexian Works and How Safe it is Compared to Apixaban to Prevent Stroke or Systemic Embolism in People With Irregular and Often Rapid Heartbeat (Atrial Fibrillation), and at Risk for Stroke NCT05643573 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Permanent Atrial fibriLLAtion Outcome Study Using Dronedarone on Top of Standard Therapy NCT01151137 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• A Pilot Study on Edoxaban for the Resolution of Left Atrial Thrombosis in Patients With Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation NCT03489395 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Global Study to Assess the Safety and Effectiveness of Edoxaban (DU-176b) vs Standard Practice of Dosing With Warfarin in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation NCT00781391 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.