A Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Combined Single Ascending Dose and Multiple Ascending Dose Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeradbrainmoderatein subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: immunogenicitysinglescreeningedemaprior to
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 46 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Immunogenicity, and Pharmacodynamic Response of Repeated Intravenous Infusions of BAN2401 in Subjects With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT02094729 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating The Efficacy And Safety Of Bapineuzumab In Alzheimer Disease Patients NCT00667810 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Lecanemab in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT01767311 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Bapineuzumab in Alzheimer Disease Patients NCT00676143 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of ABT-957 in Subjects With Mild-to-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Stable Doses of Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors NCT02220738 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.