A Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Immunogenicity, and Pharmacodynamic Response of Repeated Intravenous Infusions of BAN2401 in Subjects With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerscorestrokecognitivethe subject
  Phrases that lowered it: immunogenicitypharmacokineticsscreeningclinicalmale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 45 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Combined Single Ascending Dose and Multiple Ascending Dose Study NCT01230853 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Single Ascending Dose Study of BIIB037 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease NCT01397539 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• A Study of SHR-1707 With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease or Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT05681819 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Single-Ascending-Dose Study of BIIB076 in Healthy Volunteers and Participants With Alzheimer's Disease NCT03056729 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of BIIB092 in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT03352557 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.