Acute Osteoarthritis Experimental Model Study.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2009-03-31, after 2008-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: paindiseasemonthsplacebo controlledconcurrent
Phrases that lowered it: kneemmhgarthritisproductindex -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 539 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 816 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 3992 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 9649 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- not given (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 816 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 539 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9649 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3992 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- naproxen
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of X0002 Spray in Subjects With Osteoarthritis Knee Pain NCT03081806 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of X0002 in Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis NCT03691818 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of X0002 in Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis NCT05324163 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Trial of APPA in the Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis NCT04657926 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Effect of Diacerein vs Celecoxib on Symptoms and Structural Changes in Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis NCT02688400 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.