Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of X0002 in Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-10-21, after 2018-07-16 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjecttypepriorcancercell
Phrases that lowered it: kneearthritisoajointacid -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 204674 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 9 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 204674 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 28122 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 69.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 12.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ibuprofen
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of X0002 Spray in Subjects With Osteoarthritis Knee Pain NCT03081806 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of X0002 in Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis NCT05324163 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Acute Osteoarthritis Experimental Model Study. NCT01231490 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- A Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Target Engagement (TE) Study of GSK3858279 in Healthy Participants and Evaluation of the Efficacy of Repeat Doses in Participants With Osteoarthritis (OA) NCT03485365 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Phase 2B Micronized DHACM vs. Saline in the Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis NCT05796765 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.