A Study of Dovitinib Versus Sorafenib in Adult Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) as a First Line Treatment

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomastagetransplantadvancedcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: may applycriteria mayother protocoldefined inclusionprotocol defined
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 283 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 306 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 6224 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Of Sunitinib Malate Versus Sorafenib In Patients With Inoperable Liver Cancer NCT00699374 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Sorafenib (Nexavar) in Combination With Gemcitabine in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) NCT00703365 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Study of Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab in Participants With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT04039607 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation Study of Nintedanib (BIBF 1120) in Japanese Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT01594125 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study of Nivolumab Compared to Sorafenib as a First Treatment in Patients With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT02576509 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.