Reirradiation and Erbitux in the HNSCC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-07-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientcancersquamouspatientsradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andthe efficacysafety ofbetween 18
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Cetuximab + Taxotere With Low Dose Fractionated Radiation for Head and Neck Carcinoma NCT01794845 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Nab-Paclitaxel, Cetuximab, Cisplatin, and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Recurrent Head and Neck Cancer NCT00833261 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Chemotherapy, Radiation Therapy, and Cetuximab in Treating Patients With the Head and Neck Cancer NCT00875849 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Cetuximab, Combination Chemotherapy, and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Newly Diagnosed Stage III or Stage IV Head and Neck Cancer That Cannot Be Removed By Surgery NCT00646659 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy, Pemetrexed, and Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Second Primary Head and Neck Cancer NCT00573989 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.