High-Dose Gemcitabine, Busulfan and Melphalan With Hematopoietic-Cell Support for Patients With Poor-Risk Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantgreater thantherapycelldefined
  Phrases that lowered it: hepatitissafety ofpositiveinfectionhiv
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 156 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 262 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 7 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 14 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• High Dose Busulfan and Bortezomib in Treating Patients With High Risk Multiple Myeloma Undergoing Stem Cell Transplant NCT01534143 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• High Dose Chemotherapy Using BeEAM for Autologous Transplant in Multiple Myeloma NCT02416206 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Busulfan, Melphalan, and Bortezomib Before First-Line Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT01605032 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Randomized Trial to Compare Busulfan + Melphalan 140 mg/m2 With Melphalan 200 mg/m2 as Preparative Regimen for Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Multiple Myeloma NCT01413178 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Multiple Myeloma NCT01453101 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.