High Dose Busulfan and Bortezomib in Treating Patients With High Risk Multiple Myeloma Undergoing Stem Cell Transplant
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2013-05-31, after 2012-02-29 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplantcellcellsdonorstem
Phrases that lowered it: myelomamultiplebortezomibinvestigatortrial -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 47 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7856 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 47 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 13 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 32545 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7856 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 31.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bortezomib, busulfan, fludarabine, sirolimus, tacrolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Busulfan, Melphalan, and Bortezomib Before First-Line Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT01605032 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Nonmyeloablative Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplant Followed by Bortezomib in High-risk Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT02308280 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Melphalan and Bortezomib Prior to Autologous Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT02353572 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- Melphalan Hydrochloride in Treating Participants With Newly-Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Undergoing Donor Stem Cell Transplantation NCT03417284 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Multiple Myeloma NCT01453101 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.