Melphalan Hydrochloride in Treating Participants With Newly-Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Undergoing Donor Stem Cell Transplantation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsheartdonorventricularpatients
  Phrases that lowered it: participanthealthyparticipantsaminotransferasemultiple
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 836 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 37498 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Busulfan, Melphalan, and Bortezomib Before First-Line Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT01605032 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Melphalan and Bortezomib Prior to Autologous Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT02353572 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• A Randomized Trial to Compare Busulfan + Melphalan 140 mg/m2 With Melphalan 200 mg/m2 as Preparative Regimen for Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Multiple Myeloma NCT01413178 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Busulfan & Melphalan Conditioning for Autologous Stem Cell Transplant (ASCT) and Lenalidomide Maintenance NCT01702831 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Melphalan+Bortezomib as a Conditioning Regimen for Autologous and Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplants in Multiple Myeloma NCT00948922 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.