Busulfan & Melphalan Conditioning for Autologous Stem Cell Transplant (ASCT) and Lenalidomide Maintenance

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mg dlchemotherapycardiacthe timeventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmyelomalenalidomideinvestigatorhepatic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 182 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 34.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 81 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11267 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 47337 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Busulfan, Melphalan, and Bortezomib Before First-Line Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT01605032 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• IV Busulfan Plus Bortezomib Conditioning Regimen for Second Autologous Stem Cell Transplant in Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT01009840 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Melphalan+Bortezomib as a Conditioning Regimen for Autologous and Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplants in Multiple Myeloma NCT00948922 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Melphalan Hydrochloride in Treating Participants With Newly-Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Undergoing Donor Stem Cell Transplantation NCT03417284 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Busulfan in Multiple Myeloma NCT00934232 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.