Busulfan in Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects mustcellsinstitutionalmripatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomaparticipantspharmacokineticmultiplelight
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 46.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Busulfan & Melphalan Conditioning for Autologous Stem Cell Transplant (ASCT) and Lenalidomide Maintenance NCT01702831 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Busulfan, Melphalan, and Bortezomib Before First-Line Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT01605032 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation With Ixazomib for High Risk Multiple Myeloma (BMT CTN 1302) NCT02440464 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of bb2121 Versus Standard Regimens in Subjects With Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma (RRMM) NCT03651128 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Melphalan+Bortezomib as a Conditioning Regimen for Autologous and Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplants in Multiple Myeloma NCT00948922 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.