IV Busulfan Plus Bortezomib Conditioning Regimen for Second Autologous Stem Cell Transplant in Multiple Myeloma Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellpriortransplantchemotherapycontrol
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomasubjects whomultipledose14
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 7301 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Busulfan & Melphalan Conditioning for Autologous Stem Cell Transplant (ASCT) and Lenalidomide Maintenance NCT01702831 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Busulfan in Multiple Myeloma NCT00934232 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• A Multicenter Phase I Study Evaluating the Addition of Bortezomib to an Established Acute Graft Versus Host Disease Prophylaxis Regimen in Pediatric Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Patients NCT01926899 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Melphalan Hydrochloride in Treating Participants With Newly-Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Undergoing Donor Stem Cell Transplantation NCT03417284 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Fludarabine and Busulfan vs. Fludarabine, Busulfan and Total Body Irradiation NCT01366612 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.