Phase III Study of Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone With or Without Elotuzumab to Treat Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientleukemialenalidomiderefractoryprior
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsmyelomaopen labelrandomized openhepatitis
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 35.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 93 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 291 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10200 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 31801 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Study of Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone With or Without Elotuzumab to Treat Newly Diagnosed, Previously Untreated Multiple Myeloma NCT01335399 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Trial of Pomalidomide and Low-dose Dexamethasone With or Without Elotuzumab to Treat Refractory and Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma (ELOQUENT-3) NCT02654132 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Study of Bortezomib and Dexamethasone With or Without Elotuzumab to Treat Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01478048 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Study of Elotuzumab in Combination With Pomalidomide and Low Dose Dexamethasone and Elotuzumab in Combination With Nivolumab in Patients With Multiple Myeloma Relapsed or Refractory to Prior Treatment With Lenalidomide. NCT02612779 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• PH III Study of Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone With or Without Elotuzumab to Treat Previously Untreated Multiple Myeloma (ELO 1 Substudy) NCT01891643 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.