PH III Study of Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone With or Without Elotuzumab to Treat Previously Untreated Multiple Myeloma (ELO 1 Substudy)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiatherapycellhighmeasurable
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsmyelomaplasmabmsvisit
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 109 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 395 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18106 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 72500 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Study of Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone With or Without Elotuzumab to Treat Newly Diagnosed, Previously Untreated Multiple Myeloma NCT01335399 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Lenalidomide/Dexamethasone With or Without Elotuzumab for Newly Diagnosed MM Patients in Japan NCT02272803 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study of Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone With or Without Elotuzumab to Treat Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01239797 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study of Elotuzumab in Combination With Pomalidomide and Low Dose Dexamethasone and Elotuzumab in Combination With Nivolumab in Patients With Multiple Myeloma Relapsed or Refractory to Prior Treatment With Lenalidomide. NCT02612779 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1b/2, Dose-Escalation Study of Elotuzumab (Humanized Anti-CS1 Monoclonal IgG1 Antibody) in Relapsed Multiple Myeloma NCT00742560 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.