Open Label Study to Evaluate the Activity of Imetelstat in Patients With Essential Thrombocythemia or Polycythemia Vera

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chroniculnheartpriorrequiring
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatestemcardiovascularmale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Imetelstat Sodium in Treating Participants With Primary or Secondary Myelofibrosis NCT01731951 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• A Two-part Study to Assess the Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of Givinostat in Patients With Polycythemia Vera NCT01901432 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Eltrombopag Olamine in Improving Platelet Recovery in Older Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia Undergoing Chemotherapy NCT02071901 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• A Three-part Study of Eltrombopag in Thrombocytopenic Subjects With Myelodysplastic Syndromes or Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT01440374 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Simtuzumab in Adults With Primary, Post Polycythemia Vera or Post Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis NCT01369498 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.