A Phase II Trial of Anti-KIR in Smoldering Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-04-30, after 2010-11-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreater thandlheart
Phrases that lowered it: myelomaparticipantsmultipleabnormaltopical -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 443 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: government (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 251 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 443 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 251 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study on the Effect of Ibrutinib on High Risk Smoldering Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT02943473 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
- A Phase II Trial If Nivolumab, Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in High Risk Smoldering Myeloma NCT02903381 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- Study on the Anti-tumor Activity, Safety and Pharmacology of IPH2101 in Patients With Smoldering Multiple Myeloma NCT01222286 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Myeloma-Developing Regimens Using Genomics (MyDRUG) NCT03732703 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- PD-L1 Peptide Vaccination in High Risk Smoldering Multiple Myeloma NCT03850522 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.