Study of Tocilizumab in Combination With Methotrexate for Treatment of Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: countdiseaseclassmoderate toto severe
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningand safetypatients whoefficacy andsafety of
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 50484 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of RoActemra/Actemra (Tocilizumab) Given Subcutaneously in Combination With Traditional DMARDs in Patients With Moderate to Severe Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01232569 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study With Tocilizumab [RoActemra/Actemra] Monotherapy or in Combination With Methotrexate in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis (PICTURE) NCT01063062 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study of Tocilizumab as Monotherapy and in Combination With Methotrexate Versus Methotrexate in Patients With Early Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01007435 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Study of Tocilizumab (RoActemra/Actemra) in Monotherapy or in Combination With Methotrexate or Other Non-Biologic DMARDs in Participants With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis and an Inadequate Response to Current Non-Biologic DMARD Therapy or the First Anti-TNF Biologic Agent NCT02046603 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• An Open-Label Study of RoActemra/Actemra (Tocilizumab) in Patients With Moderate to Severe Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01951170 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.