Randomized Trial of Pegylated Interferon Alfa-2a Versus Hydroxyurea in Polycythemia Vera (PV) and Essential Thrombocythemia (ET)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: risktherapythe subjectentryuln
  Phrases that lowered it: bloodsubjectsparticipantstrialdiabetes
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 23788 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 119837 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pegylated Interferon Alfa-2a Salvage Therapy in High Risk Polycythemia Vera (PV) or Essential Thrombocythemia (ET) NCT01259817 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Study With SAR302503 in Patients With Polycythemia Vera or Essential Thrombocythemia NCT01420783 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study of Ruxolitinib in Patients With Primary Myelofibrosis (PM), Post-polycythemia Vera (PV) Myelofibrosis, or Post-essential Thrombocythemia (ET) Myelofibrosis NCT02087059 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Open Label Study of Single Agent Oral RG7388 in Patients With Polycythemia Vera and Essential Thrombocythemia NCT02407080 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate P1101 in Japanese PV Patients NCT06002490 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.