Open Label Study of Single Agent Oral RG7388 in Patients With Polycythemia Vera and Essential Thrombocythemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsleukemiacanceramlheart
  Phrases that lowered it: singlebloodaminotransferaseessentialopen
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study With SAR302503 in Patients With Polycythemia Vera or Essential Thrombocythemia NCT01420783 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study of Ruxolitinib in Patients With Primary Myelofibrosis (PM), Post-polycythemia Vera (PV) Myelofibrosis, or Post-essential Thrombocythemia (ET) Myelofibrosis NCT02087059 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Idasanutlin Monotherapy in Participants With Hydroxyurea-Resistant/Intolerant Polycythemia Vera NCT03287245 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• A Two-part Study to Assess the Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of Givinostat in Patients With Polycythemia Vera NCT01901432 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Open Label Study to Evaluate the Activity of Imetelstat in Patients With Essential Thrombocythemia or Polycythemia Vera NCT01243073 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.