A Randomized, Single Blind, Placebo Controlled Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Single Oral Doses and Repeat Escalating Oral Doses of GSK2251052 in Healthy Adult Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (776 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-08-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 449 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1256 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: single (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilityplacebo controlledtolerability andoral dosesblind
  Phrases that lowered it: healthysubjectproductsproductmg
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Four Part Study to Investigate Relative Bioavailability, Safety and Tolerability of up to 5 Oral Formulation of GSK2251052 in Order to Identify a Formulation for Further Evaluation in a Future Later Phase Study NCT01702350 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated
• First Time in Human Study With GSK1325756 NCT01209052 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• An Open-label Single Dose Randomized, Parallel Group Study Followed by Single-blind Repeat Dosing, to Compare the Relative Bioavailability of GSK2212836. NCT00996268 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Single Oral Escalating Dose Study of GSK2140944 in Healthy Volunteers NCT02202187 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Relative Bioavailability, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Food Effect Study of GSK2140944 in Healthy Subjects NCT02045849 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.