Gene Transfer for Recessive Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: gradecancerdlbreastcells
  Phrases that lowered it: inclusiveclinically significantsafety ofsinglealcohol
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Trial to Assess Safety and Efficacy of Autologous Cultured Epidermal Grafts Containing Epidermal Stem Cells Genetically Modified in Patients With RDEB. NCT02984085 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
• Phase 3, Open-label Clinical Trial of EB-101 for the Treatment of Recessive Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa (RDEB) NCT04227106 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• A Phase I/II Study of KB103, a Topical HSV1-COL7, on DEB Patients NCT03536143 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of Gene-modified Autologous Fibroblasts in Recessive Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa NCT02493816 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Open-label, Pivotal Clinical Trial to Confirm Efficacy and Safety of Autologous Grafts Containing Stem Cells Genetically Modified for Epidermis Restoration in Patients With Junctional Epidermolysis Bullosa NCT05111600 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.