A Phase I/II Study of KB103, a Topical HSV1-COL7, on DEB Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellbreastsubjectnegativeto assess
  Phrases that lowered it: determined byas determinedareatopicalscreening
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 2 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ph 3 Efficacy and Safety of B-VEC for the Treatment of DEB NCT04491604 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Phase 3, Open-label Clinical Trial of EB-101 for the Treatment of Recessive Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa (RDEB) NCT04227106 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Gene Transfer for Recessive Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa NCT01263379 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Long-term Treatment With B-VEC for Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa NCT04917874 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial to Assess Safety and Efficacy of Autologous Cultured Epidermal Grafts Containing Epidermal Stem Cells Genetically Modified in Patients With RDEB. NCT02984085 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.