Safety and Efficacy of the Combination of Diacerein 100 mg Daily and MTX Versus MTX Alone in the Treatment of Early Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: weeks priortreatment withstabletherapypotential
  Phrases that lowered it: hepatitisevaluate theto evaluatepositivealcohol
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of BG00012 With Methotrexate in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00810836 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT02265705 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of GSK3196165 Versus Placebo and Tofacitinib in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Conventional Synthetic (cs)/Biologic (b) Disease Modifying Anti-rheumatic Drugs (DMARDs) NCT03970837 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• Effect of Diacerein vs Celecoxib on Symptoms and Structural Changes in Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis NCT02688400 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study of Safety and Efficacy of BCD-020 Comparing to MabThera in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01759030 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.