Efficacy and Safety of GSK3196165 Versus Placebo and Tofacitinib in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Conventional Synthetic (cs)/Biologic (b) Disease Modifying Anti-rheumatic Drugs (DMARDs)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2567 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 41.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termthe longplaceboextensionweek
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsjointand safetyefficacy andcount
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 134 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 12 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 66156 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of GSK3196165 (Otilimab) Versus Placebo and Sarilumab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Biological Disease-modifying Antirheumatic Drug (DMARDs) and/or Janus Kinase (JAK) Inhibitors NCT04134728 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of GSK3196165 Versus Placebo and Tofacitinib in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT03980483 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK3196165 Plus Methotrexate in Subjects With Active Moderate-Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02504671 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Tregalizumab in Subjects (MTX-IR) With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01999192 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• Mechanistic Study of GSK3196165 Plus Methotrexate (MTX) in Subjects With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02799472 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.