Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK3196165 Plus Methotrexate in Subjects With Active Moderate-Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungpulmonarychronicplacebocopd
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmacombinationsubjectsthe investigatorthe efficacy
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 2142 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 262 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18254 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 99866 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Mechanistic Study of GSK3196165 Plus Methotrexate (MTX) in Subjects With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02799472 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of GSK3196165 Versus Placebo and Tofacitinib in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Conventional Synthetic (cs)/Biologic (b) Disease Modifying Anti-rheumatic Drugs (DMARDs) NCT03970837 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of GSK3196165 Versus Placebo and Tofacitinib in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT03980483 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of GSK3196165 (Otilimab) Versus Placebo and Sarilumab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Biological Disease-modifying Antirheumatic Drug (DMARDs) and/or Janus Kinase (JAK) Inhibitors NCT04134728 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Tregalizumab in Subjects (MTX-IR) With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01999192 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.