A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics After Single Ascending Intravenous Doses of AZD2927 in Healthy Male Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilityplacebothe subjectto assessascending
  Phrases that lowered it: healthykgmale volunteersmale subjectsweight
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 337 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 919 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 45 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 4 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• To Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2820 After Single Ascending Doses NCT01332214 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2423 in Healthy Volunteers NCT00940212 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A First Time in Man Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD1979 in Healthy Males NCT02072993 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics (PK) (Including Food Effect) of Oral Doses of AZD5847 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01037725 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety and Tolerability After Oral Dosing of AZD1656 in Healthy Volunteers NCT00726427 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.