To Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2820 After Single Ascending Doses
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-11-30, after 2011-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: the subjectany clinicallyof signedprovisionascending
Phrases that lowered it: healthymale volunteerspharmacokineticsto participateparticipate in -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 316 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 965 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 45 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 965 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 316 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- To Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmakodynamics of AZD2820 After Multiple Ascending Doses NCT01469923 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics After Single Ascending Intravenous Doses of AZD2927 in Healthy Male Volunteers NCT01264250 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2423 in Healthy Volunteers NCT00940212 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- AZD8075 Single Ascending Dose Study NCT00787072 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
- A First Time in Man Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD1979 in Healthy Males NCT02072993 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.