Blood Levels and Effects of GSK1325756 in Healthy Adult Volunteers Aged 40 to 80 Years Old

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (355 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-01-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartgreaterand pharmacodynamicspharmacodynamics ofcardiac
  Phrases that lowered it: volunteershealthyscreeningkgalcohol
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 451 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1270 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized, Single Blind, Placebo Controlled Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Single Oral Doses and Repeat Escalating Oral Doses of GSK2251052 in Healthy Adult Subjects NCT01262885 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• First Time in Human Study With GSK1325756 NCT01209052 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Look at How GSK1325756 is Taken up by the Body When Given by Mouth When Stomach Acid is Reduced NCT01453478 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Relative Bioavailability Study for GSK1278863A NCT01319006 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• GSK1349572 Relative Bioavailability Study NCT01098513 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.