Study of Rifampicin in Multiple System Atrophy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kidney diseaseto determinedetermine whetherpriorpurpose
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantseverestudy wasdiseases
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 37262 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Futility Trial of Sirolimus in Multiple System Atrophy NCT03589976 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy, Tolerability and Safety of Azilect in Subjects With Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT01187888 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• Proof of Concept Study of RHB-104 as Add-On Therapy to Interferon Beta-1a in Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT01717664 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Explore the Potential Benefit of Safinamide on Cognitive Impairment Associated With Parkinson's Disease NCT01211587 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1 (First in Human) Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled SAD, MAD Study With Oral REM0046127 NCT04672135 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.