A Phase 1 (First in Human) Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled SAD, MAD Study With Oral REM0046127

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomamsheartdlfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyparticipantsmalerangehepatitis
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Multiple Ascending Dose Safety, Tolerability, PK Study of AL001 in Alzheimer's Disease Patients & Healthy Adult Subjects NCT05363293 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of REM0045392 Compared With Placebo in Healthy Participants. NCT07016464 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated
• A Study Of Zy-19489 Administered Via Oral Route To Investigate The Safety, Tolerability And Pharmacokinetics In Healthy Adult Human Subjects NCT05206201 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic, and Pharmacodynamic Study of Oral ASN51 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease NCT04759365 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 1 Study in Healthy Volunteers to Evaluate the Relative Bioavailability of ALG-055009 Formulations NCT06959888 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.