Multiple Ascending Dose Safety, Tolerability, PK Study of AL001 in Alzheimer's Disease Patients & Healthy Adult Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerpatientsdepressiondisorderdementia
  Phrases that lowered it: healthysubjectsasthmaparticipantimpairment
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate Lithium Brain/Plasma Pharmacokinetics and Safety of an AL001 Oral Capsule Compared to a Marketed Immediate-release Lithium Carbonate Capsule in Healthy Adult Subjects NCT06921590 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Phase Ia/Ib, First-in-human (FIH) Study for Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK), and Clinical Activity Evaluation of ADEL-Y01 NCT06247345 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic, and Pharmacodynamic Study of Oral ASN51 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease NCT04759365 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• Salsalate in Patients Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT03277573 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Receptor Occupancy of BMS-984923 NCT04805983 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.