Salsalate in Patients Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerof studystabletolerabilityevidence
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmammhgvisitparticipantsinfluenza
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A 6 Month, Open-Label, Pilot Futility Clinical Trial of Oral Salsalate for Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT02422485 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Multiple Ascending Dose Safety, Tolerability, PK Study of AL001 in Alzheimer's Disease Patients & Healthy Adult Subjects NCT05363293 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Randomized I/II Phase Study of ALZT-OP1 Combination Therapy in Alzheimer's Disease and Normal Healthy Volunteers NCT04570644 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Safety and Efficacy Study of NA-831 NCT03538522 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Tetra PICASSO AD Trial: Study to Evaluate Effects of BPN14770 in Early Alzheimer's Subjects NCT03817684 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.