A 6 Month, Open-Label, Pilot Futility Clinical Trial of Oral Salsalate for Progressive Supranuclear Palsy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-12-31, after 2015-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mrisubjectstrokeprogressivemajor
Phrases that lowered it: asthmatrialnasaldailyexamination -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 604 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 62 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 65.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- salsalate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Salsalate in Patients Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT03277573 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- Multiple Ascending Dose Safety, Tolerability, PK Study of AL001 in Alzheimer's Disease Patients & Healthy Adult Subjects NCT05363293 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Efficacy, Tolerability and Safety of Azilect in Subjects With Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT01187888 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
- A Trial to Explore the Potential Benefit of Safinamide on Cognitive Impairment Associated With Parkinson's Disease NCT01211587 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- Young Plasma Transfusions for Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT02460731 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.