Young Plasma Transfusions for Progressive Supranuclear Palsy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-12-31, after 2015-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: priorcancersubjectdonortrial
Phrases that lowered it: healthyulnaminotransferasemm3open label -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 150 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 452 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 150 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluation of [18F]APN-1607 as a PET Biomarker NCT05005819 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Davunetide for the Treatment of Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT01110720 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of TPI-287 to Treat CBS and PSP NCT02133846 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- A 6 Month, Open-Label, Pilot Futility Clinical Trial of Oral Salsalate for Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT02422485 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Multiple Ascending Doses of NIO752 in Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT04539041 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.