Canakinumab for Pyoderma Gangrenosum

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: enrollmentsubjecttreatment ofagedays prior
  Phrases that lowered it: womenperioddiseasesmonoclonalcriteria may
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 42.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 68 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 14 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Open-Label, Proof-of-Concept Study of Ixekizumab in the Treatment of Pyoderma Gangrenosum NCT03137160 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Baricitinib in the Treatment of Adults With Pyoderma Gangrenosum (PG) NCT04901325 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Canakinumab to Treat Neonatal-Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT00770601 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Ilaris® in Urticarial Vasculitis - Investigation of Treatment Responses NCT01170936 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Anakinra for Inflammatory Pustular Skin Diseases NCT01794117 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.