Baricitinib in the Treatment of Adults With Pyoderma Gangrenosum (PG)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-05-07, after 2023-10-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectscreening30pressurehepatitis virus
Phrases that lowered it: weeksparticipantsinvestigatorvaccinemg -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 313 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 313 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 51 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6540 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1538 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 71.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- baricitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluation of Effect and Tolerance of the Association of Baricitinib and Phototherapy Versus Phototherapy in Adults With Progressive Vitiligo NCT04822584 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- An Open-Label, Proof-of-Concept Study of Ixekizumab in the Treatment of Pyoderma Gangrenosum NCT03137160 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Canakinumab for Pyoderma Gangrenosum NCT01302795 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Benefit and Safety of GSK2982772 in Moderate to Severe Psoriasis Participants NCT04316585 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- TO ASSESS THE EFFICACY AND SAFETY OF PF-06650833, PF-06651600, AND TOFACITINIB ALONE AND IN COMBINATION IN PARTICIPANTS WITH ACTIVE RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS WITH AN INADEQUATE RESPONSE TO METHOTREXATE NCT04413617 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.