TO ASSESS THE EFFICACY AND SAFETY OF PF-06650833, PF-06651600, AND TOFACITINIB ALONE AND IN COMBINATION IN PARTICIPANTS WITH ACTIVE RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS WITH AN INADEQUATE RESPONSE TO METHOTREXATE

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cells000countcelltransplant
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsvaccinescreeningparticipantresults
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1903 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 44.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 153 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 92993 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 25239 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics, and Safety of BI 695500 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01682512 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
• A Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis Study NCT01721044 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Study in Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis Participants NCT01721057 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Efavaleukin Alfa in Subjects With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT03410056 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• A Randomised, Double-blind, Phase I/II Study to Evaluate the PK, PD, Safety, and Efficacy Between HLX01 and Rituximab in Patients With Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis and Inadequate Response to Treatment With DMARDs NCT03355872 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.