Safety and Feasibility Study of Administration of Mesenchymal Stemcells for Treatment of Emphysema
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-11-30, after 2010-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellslungcarcinomacellcardiac
Phrases that lowered it: effect ofscreeningsafetymultiplealcohol -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 11 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Potential Efficacy of Human Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis NCT02625246 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- Allogeneic Human Cells (hMSC) Via Intravenous Delivery in Patients With Mild Asthma NCT03137199 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
- Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Efficacy of Adipose Derive Stem Cells for Patients With COPD NCT02161744 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Efficacy of Adipose Derived Stem Cells for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT02216630 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- Allogeneic Bone Marrow Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Patients With Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) & Connective Tissue Disorders (CTD) NCT03929120 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.