Allogeneic Bone Marrow Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Patients With Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) & Connective Tissue Disorders (CTD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (74 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellstissuediseaseevidencelung
  Phrases that lowered it: healthysafety ofmalethe trialscreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 993 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 254 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Allogeneic Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Patients With Rapidly Progressive Interstitial Lung Disease NCT02594839 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Safety and Potential Efficacy of Human Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis NCT02625246 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Allogeneic Mesenchymal Stromal Cell Therapy in Renal Transplant Recipients NCT02387151 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Safety and Feasibility Study of Administration of Mesenchymal Stemcells for Treatment of Emphysema NCT01306513 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Allogeneic Human Cells (hMSC) Via Intravenous Delivery in Patients With Mild Asthma NCT03137199 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.