Perimenopausal Estrogen Replacement Therapy Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-03-31, after 2010-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: relevancehealthystudy isestrogenrate
Phrases that lowered it: progressionfunctionheartdepressiveindividuals -
Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 73 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 14252 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 45 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 104 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 73 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14252 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3317 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 71.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- estradiol, progesterone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Estrogen Receptor Beta and Mood NCT03689543 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Neurocognitive Mechanisms of Perimenstrual Estrogen Effects on Suicidality NCT06191289 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
- Effects of Estrogen and Hot Flashes on Mood in Postmenopausal Women NCT01126801 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
- Impact of Prasterone on Cardiometabolic Indicators in Perimenopausal Women. NCT07609043 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Research Investigation of Soy and Estrogen NCT00997893 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.