Estrogen Receptor Beta and Mood
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (102 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-09-09, after 2019-05-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-09-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: symptomsbreastprioreffectsdepression
Phrases that lowered it: participantsdrugbloodpulmonaryto evaluate -
Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 45 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 105 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 94425 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 8061 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 64.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- estradiol, medroxyprogesterone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Neurosteroid Intervention for Menopausal and Perimenopausal Depression NCT03505905 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Effects of Estrogen and Hot Flashes on Mood in Postmenopausal Women NCT01126801 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
- Progesterone for Perimenopausal Night Sweats NCT01464697 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- A TSEC for Symptom Management in Menopausal Women With Multiple Sclerosis NCT02710214 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Perimenopausal Estrogen Replacement Therapy Study NCT01308814 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.