A TSEC for Symptom Management in Menopausal Women With Multiple Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-04-24, after 2016-02-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 152 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mswomenmridetermine whetherbreast cancer
Phrases that lowered it: participantmoderate20to severebi -
Sponsor's past trials: 495 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 62 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 495 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 152 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase 2 Study of SJX-653 in Postmenopausal Women With Moderate to Severe Vasomotor Symptoms NCT04278872 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
- Estetrol for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Vasomotor Symptoms in Postmenopausal Women (E4Comfort Study I) NCT04209543 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Estetrol for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Vasomotor Symptoms in Postmenopausal Women (E4Comfort II) NCT04090957 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess Long-term Safety of Fezolinetant Given to Japanese Women Going Through Menopause NCT06206421 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Study to Find Out if Fezolinetant Helps Reduce Moderate to Severe Hot Flashes in Women Going Through Menopause NCT04003155 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.