IMAAGEN: Impact of Abiraterone Acetate in Prostate-Specific Antigen

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerdiseasesolidtherapychemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningtabletlabelabirateroneacetate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9582 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Study of Increased-Dose Abiraterone Acetate in Patients With Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01637402 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• 3-arm Study of Abiraterone Acetate Alone, Abiraterone Acetate Plus Degarelix, a GnRH Antagonist, and Degarelix Alone for Patients With Prostate Cancer With a Rising PSA or a Rising PSA and Nodal Disease Following Definitive Radical Prostatectomy NCT01751451 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Abiraterone Post Ketoconazole for Prostate Cancer NCT01199146 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Abiraterone, Radiotherapy and Short-Term Androgen Deprivation in Unfavorable Localized Prostate Cancer NCT01717053 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Study of Abiraterone Acetate and Prednisone in Combination With Cabazitaxel in Patients With Prostate Cancer NCT01845792 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.